without_worries

Bitcoin Life-cross - Never a false signalMoving averages do not feature much in my ideas, probability versus risk is my preference. However many market participants use moving averages for decision making. If that’s you, this post is for you. Previously Bitcoin entered a new bull market when: 1) A weekly candle printed as support on the 21-week EMA (yellow line. AND 2) The 21-week EMA crossed up the 50-week SMA (blue line). Last week just confirmed a new cross. <$25.5k is an ‘incredibly buy’ opportunity. Ww Previous crosses: June 2020, 640% May 2019, 160% November 2015, 6600% July 2012, 18600% 2015 2012Trade active: Weekly life cross confirmed. Months of uptrend ahead.Comment: The last long entry following the 25K mark is now 29k.Comment: Despite the last comment it remains valid, this correction will be short lived. Life cross and 1st test of the 50-day SMA The upward channel More exciting that all this is the 2-day life cross. It just printed and like the 1-day life cross a correction is seen. Should have caught this but not all seeing. 2-day Like the 1-day like cross a test of the 2-day/200-day as support will show the market is in a new uptrend. Look left at previous 2-day life crosses. July 2020 2-day life crossComment: 2-day life cross now confirmed. 48k in the next 2-3 months has a very high probability.

Storj (STORJ) to $2. SoonishSo much going on in the above daily chart, multiple reasons to be bullish. 1) There was a ‘incredible buy’ signal, just did not get around to sharing. See 2-day chart below. 2) Price action has broken out from long term resistance since November 2021 as shown by the black arrow, do you see it? 3) Most recently price action has broken out from a bull flag formation during a month long consolidation period. 4) The Bull flag ‘flagpole’ extension measures a target to around $2, that’s almost 200% from current levels. 5) Price action consolidates on the golden ratio. 6) The Fibonacci golden ratio extension (1.618) measures out to the same target! Is it possible price action falls further? Sure. Is it probable? No Ww Type: trade Risk: 6% of portfolio Timeframe: no idea Return: 200% 2-day chartComment: breakout occurs before August 20thTrade active: Target revised to 1.70.

Kadena (KDA) On the above 5-day chart price action has corrected 96% since the sell signal (not shown). Now is a good opportunity to go long. Why? 1) A strong buy signal prints. (not shown). 2) Price action resistance breakout (USD and BTC pairs). 3) Strong positive divergence between price action and multiple oscillators. This divergence occurs over an 80 day period. 4) Price action finds multiple weeks of support on the Fibonacci 0.236, since the start of the year. Is it possible price action could fall further? Sure. Is it probable? No. Ww Type: trade Risk: <= 6% Timeframe: Don’t know. Return: 60x

This idea follows what happens after the 31k idea target was met, albeit briefly. A number of developments print on the above weekly chart, could spend an hour talking about. In summary: The 100-week EMA confirms a candle body print as support. This is incredibly bullish. At no point throughout price action history did a bull run not follow after this fact following a significant period below the EMA. Look left. The 120k idea is unaffected by this idea. However nothing goes up in a straight line, there are always corrections along the way, this is healthy market structure. Will this move to 48k be healthy? Don’t know. The current move in price action has been energetic to say the least. However facts of the chart remain. Why 48k ?? This is a fact, not my opinion. When price action printed a weekly candle body on or above the 100-week EMA price action rallied to the Fibonacci 0.786 as measured from the previous market top to the market bottom. This has occurred on every upward break of the 100-week EMA throughout price action history. Some might argue the market bottom is not yet in. That’s fair. However a buy signal printed on the weekly. That’s good enough for me, never had one fail. Throughout the history of Bitcoin a confirmation of support on the 100-week EMA has resulted in a significant rally to the 0.786 Fibonacci level. A 20-50% correction follows. What type of correction will follow? Will know nearer the time. Following the correction from 48k the 100-120k target shall be met. However as time passes there is argument for that target to be lifted. This is a result of the log growth curve increasing with time, but that’s another story. Is it possible price action corrects to 10k as the short sellers are calling for? Sure. Is it probable? No. A buy from <29k is excellent. Ww Type: Trade Risk: < 6% Time: 4 months Return: 70%

On the above 3-day chart price action has corrected over 90% since the sell signal April 2021 (not shown) at 50 cents. Today is great long opportunity. Why? 1) You know why. 2) RSI and price action resistance breakout. 3) Strong bullish divergence. Multiple oscillators print positive divergence with price action over an extended period. Is it possible price action falls further? Sure. Is it probable? No. Ww Type: trade Risk: <=6% of portfolio Timeframe: Don’t know. Return: Will say elsewhere

On the above 5-day chart price action has corrected over 90% since the sell signal (not shown). Now is an excellent long trade. Why? 1) You know why. 2) Price action and RSI resistance breakouts. 3) Strong regular bullish divergence. 4) Price action prints on past support & resistance, look left. Is it possible price action falls further? Sure. Is it probable? No. Ww Type: trade Risk: <=6% of portfolio Timeframe: don’t know Return: will say somewhere else

On the above weekly chart the overall crypto market is shown to have corrected 75% since a strong sell signal (not shown). A strong buy signal has now printed for several weeks. The market is now incredibly bullish. Why? 1) Price action re-claims the 200-week SMA. 2) Price action resistance prints a clear breakout. 3) A falling wedge pattern with confirmation. 4) The flagpole of this wedge extends to $19 trillion. Is it possible for the market to fall further? Sure. Is it probable? No and no. So, do you want to take a leap of faith, or become an old man, filled with regret, waiting for that $10k? Ww

On the above 4-day chart price action has corrected over 90% since the sell signal (not shown). Now is a good long moment. Why? 1) You know why. 2) Price action and RSI resistance breakouts. 3) strong regular bullish divergence on the BTC pair (see below). 4) The bull flag with extension measuring out at just beyond $6. Is it possible for price action to fall further? Sure. Is it probable? No. Ww Type: trade Risk: 6% Duration: no idea Return: 10x

On the above 3-day chart price action has corrected over 90% since the sell signal (not shown). Now is a good long moment. Why? 1) You know why. 2) Price action and RSI resistance breakouts. 3) Hidden bullish divergence. 4) The bull flag. The flag pole extends to $450 Is it possible for price action to fall further? Sure. Is it probable? No. Ww Type: trade Risk: 6% Duration: no idea Return: 22x

Short answer. Less inflation. At least for the remainder of 2023. This idea is a continuation of the Gold study recently published, which you can find below. Gold price action is a fantastic leading indicator for forecasting inflationary / deflationary periods. On the 3-month chart above Gold price action is shown on the upper chart and the lower half the current rate of inflation as recorded by the Bureau of Labour statistics. On the lower chart inflation pivots are indicated by the coloured circles. Pivots @ 5% and below are highlighted in pink, above in yellow. Looking left.. when spot gold is printing strong bearish divergence AND there is an inflation pivot at or above 5%, both inflation and spot gold fall together. This has happened every time since the 1950’s. More significant is the ‘rate of change’. Inflation / deflation by itself over an elongated period of time is a non-issue. A rate of change over a shorter period is another matter, especially when inflation is high. The harder you rise the harder you fall. What does all this mean? Significant corrections against inflated assets. Equities, housing, with the economy limping from one recession to the next just as was in the 80s. For those of you that don’t remember: “The United States entered recession in January 1980 and returned to growth six months later in July 1980. Although recovery took hold, the unemployment rate remained unchanged through the start of a second recession in July 1981. The downturn ended 16 months later, in November 1982.” It is my opinion that if a rate of inflation reduces like the early 80’s then we’re almost certainly going to see that period repeat itself over the next 2-3 years. Remember this idea is about the forecasting the direction of inflation not gold price action. However if you’re interested when gold prices shall increase then pay attention to a pivot with rising inflation (the red circles), that is the moment to be long gold, when exiting a recession not entering one. Ww Gold study