Nico.Muselle

Hi and welcome back! As a trader, you have probably at one time heard about the Turtle Traders, right? But what was it, and what can we learn from it? Let me take you on a journey into the fascinating world of the Turtle trading strategy! 🐢💰 This legendary trading experiment, conceived by two master traders, Richard Dennis and William Eckhardt, in the 1980s, showcases the power of a well-designed system and the right mindset. Dennis believed anyone could be trained to trade successfully, while Eckhardt argued that trading skills were innate. To settle the debate, they devised the Turtle trading experiment. They selected a diverse group of 23 individuals, known as the "Turtles," and taught them a trend-following trading system focused on trading commodities and currencies. The core principles of this system were: Follow the trend: The Turtles used Donchian Channels, tracking 20-day and 55-day price channels, to identify breakouts and breakdowns. When the market price broke above the 20-day high, it was a buy signal. When it broke below the 20-day low, it was a sell signal. Cut losses short: The Turtles followed a 2% rule, never risking more than 2% of their account on any single trade. They calculated position sizes using the N value, the 20-day average true range (ATR), dividing the 2% risk amount by the N value. Position sizing and pyramiding: The Turtles adjusted their position sizes based on market volatility and employed pyramiding, adding more contracts at specific increments up to a maximum limit as the market trended in their favor. Stop Losses: They used a stop-loss order equal to 2N for every trade, exiting the trade to minimize losses if the market moved against their position by twice the N value. Diversification: The Turtles traded a diversified portfolio of markets, spreading risk and enhancing returns. Scaling Out: They used a two-tiered exit strategy, exiting a portion of their position when the market retraced by 10-day low/high and the remaining position when the market retraced by 20-day low/high. With these principles, the Turtles were handed real money to trade. Over the next four years, they collectively made more than $100 million, proving that trading success could be taught. The Turtle trading experiment demonstrated the power of a disciplined, trend-following system combined with the right mindset. In conclusion, the Turtle trading strategy is an extraordinary tale of how a simple, yet effective, trading system can lead to remarkable results when executed with discipline and consistency. As you venture into the world of trading, remember that the strategy in itself is not as important as the lessons of the Turtles: stay disciplined, follow the trend, and manage your risk. You might just be the next trading success story! 🌊📈 Want to become a Turtle? 💡 Curious about the Turtle trading strategy? Dive into TradingView's Public Indicator library, where you'll find a collection of Turtle-related scripts crafted by the Pine Script™ community. Just open a chart, click "Indicators," and search "Turtle" to access a variety of indicators that'll give you a feel for this legendary system. Happy exploring! 💡 The Original Turtle Rules (PDF): This free eBook, written by Curtis M. Faith, one of the original Turtles, contains the original Turtle trading rules and guidelines. Link: www.trendfollowing.c...owing_2004-11-15.pdf 🚀 Like and follow if you appreciated this article. 📖 More useful publications can be found under "Related Ideas" below ⬇️⬇️⬇️

Have you heard about former Coinbase CTO Balaji Srinivasan's ludicrous bet that Bitcoin will reach 1 million by June due to the banking crisis? That's almost as crazy as late John McAfee's (RIP) bet back in the days. But let's get to the real question, how much "money" would it take for Bitcoin to reach such a valuation? Hmm...a pop quiz seems fun! How much money inflow is needed for Bitcoin to reach a 1 million USD valuation? a) 5 trillion USD b) 10 trillion USD c) 20 trillion USD d) nothing, hyperinflation will do the trick e) it's not possible, Bitcoin won't reach a million Put your answer in the comments right now, then come back and read on ... The answer might surprise you. Okay, ready? Let's dig in... Many folks might think that for Bitcoin to reach a 1M USD valuation, it's as simple as checking the current market cap and subtracting that from the total number of Bitcoins issued multiplied by 1 million. That would mean roughly 19,325,000 x 1,000,000 - 550,000,000,000 = 18,775,000,000 or 18.75T USD. But hold your horses! There are a couple of things to keep in mind. Approximately 80% of all issued bitcoins are being HODLed right now, meaning they are illiquid, the most significant number ever. This means that only 20% of 19,325,000 BTC or approximately 3,865,000 BTC is liquid and available for purchase. The actual number of BTC available on exchanges is even lower. Then there's the multiplier effect, averaging around 2.6 in the last 5 years. This effect means that for every $1 invested in Bitcoin , the market cap increased on average by $2.6, a fascinating side-effect of the supply and demand mechanism. Now let's calculate buying those liquid Bitcoins , keeping in mind the multiplier effect using the following formula. Inflow needed = liquid supply x 1,000,000 / 2.6 Calculated ► 3,865,000 x 1,000,000 / 2.6 = 1,486,538,461,538 USD or roughly 1.5 T. Quite a difference compared to 18.75T, right? This calculation, of course, is purely hypothetical and assumes that the current level of demand and supply remains constant. The actual price of bitcoin may vary due to a number of factors, such as changes in demand, supply, and market sentiment. Factors that could have a big impact: Large market orders would increase the multiplication factor as it pumps up the price much faster Certainly, some sell orders would be triggered at certain prices along the way, which increases the number of liquid BTC and thus the amount needed to pump to 1M The calculation did not keep in mind the BTC that will be mined till June, so we need to add some additional BTC in our calculations. Maybe most importantly, sell orders have the same multiplier effect, not to mention the panic selling that could occur if a large amount of BTC was sold at once. Nevertheless, the calculation above proves that less money is needed than previously thought for BTC to reach a 1M valuation. While I don't believe that we'll see that happening by June and this bet is outrageously bold, it does show that there is a possibility that if the banking issues continue and people see Bitcoin as a safe haven, we could reach a 1M Bitcoin faster than expected, with less inflow than expected. The point is that the faster this would happen, the less inflow would be needed. So there you have it! While Balaji Srinivasan's bet may seem outrageous and implausible, it's not as far-fetched as it might appear initially. With the right set of environmental circumstances, such as continued banking crises and increased adoption of Bitcoin as a safe haven asset, reaching a 1M valuation may be closer than we think. And now you know the (theoretical) calculation for how much money it would take to get there! What do you think? Does his bet make sense? If not, what is your prediction? Leave your thoughts in the comments and if you liked what you read here, pressing the little rocket (it really helps!) would be appreciated! Oh, and while you're here, why don't you check the idea below as well, an actual analysis of what I personally expect to happen till the next halving. (And no, it's not as crazy as this bet). Enjoy!

Admittedly, this is a clickbait title ... However, let me explain ... In previous cycles between halvings, the duration between the cycle high and cycle low was 13 months as you can see on the chart, with a price drop of >80% in that period. November '22 marks the 13th month since this cycle's ATH, so if history is respected, chances are that this month will mark the low for this cycle. 🤔Is the bottom in now? Today is only the 10th, so the month is another 20 days ... 🤔How low can we go? I personally think that we could find support around 13800, which is the previous cycle's highest monthly close. 🤔So 13800 is the bottom? Not necessarily, we could spike lower than that, as 13800 would only be a 79% decline in price, so not the >80% drop we saw in previous cycles (cycle high to cycle low). So we could drop below that level, but my expectations are that we'll close the month above it. 🤔Straight up after that? As you can see in previous cycles, there is a consolidation period before prices start to hike again, chances are high that we'll see that same thing happening again. Keeping in mind the current economic situation and geopolitical environment, going sideways for a while would make a lot of sense. 🤔So, no new ATH in 2022? Most likely not, and it's even doubtful that we'll see a new ATH in 2023. In previous cycles, we never made a new ATH before the halving, so it's very likely we'll have to wait till 2024 (or later) to see price break the 69K all-time high. 🤔Is this a good time to buy? Fundamentally nothing changed for Bitcoin , adoption, hash rate, and approval keep growing and the fact that almost 70% of BTC has not moved in the last 12 months shows that trust in Bitcoin has not faded, on the contrary. So, while nothing I say should be considered financial advice, my personal stance is that if you want to invest in BTC and keep it for the long term, it's probably a good time to buy now. Price could go lower as we speak, but chances that you'll be at a loss a couple of years from now are slim IMHO. ❓Questions for you: is the bottom in this month, or are we going to see a further decline? how low do you think we're going? did you own BTC at the ATH and did you sell or HODL? when do you think we'll see a new ATH? how high will we go? did you like this idea and pressed the 🚀button? Share your thoughts in the comments below 👇🏽👇🏽👇🏽 Thanks for your visit and have an awesome day!

BTCUSD - 200 Weekly SMA to the rescue (again)? 🤔 What's up traders, gamblers, hodlers? Been a while since I last posted an analysis and this was mostly because I've been in denial that we were in a bear market. Bias is a b#... There is hope though... You see, in the 2 previous bear markets about halfway between halvings, bitcoin has found its bottom on the 200 weekly SMA which acted as support. So maybe, just maybe this might happen again? I know that past performance is no guarantee for the future, but hey, if it happened twice, it could happen again, right? Additionally, the time that has elapsed since the previous halving is about the same as the previous times this happened, which might increase the chances that we'll see bitcoin slowly turn around and start running up towards the next halving. ⚠️BUT .... the financial markets are very shaky, supply shocks, inflation , conflicts ... for a lot of traders and investors this is a RISK-OFF period, so don't expect a sudden turnaround, and keep in mind that just because it happened twice before, it does not necessarily have to happen again. How am I dealing with this situation? You probably know that I'm a strong proponent of HODLing and DCAing. I'm an investor, not a trader. So I've not sold a single satoshi, and I plan on starting to put some buy orders in to DCA considering that the potential upside from here is so much larger than the potential downside ... But this is my money, my decision, and definitely not advice for any of you. So what do you think? ... Will the weekly 200 SMA be the bitcoin SuperHero again and come to the rescue? Share your thoughts in the comments, and if you made it this far reading, you might as well click that thumbs-up button. ;) Have a great day, and whatever you do, don't invest more than you can afford to lose. ✌🏽Comment: Here's a snapshot of the daily chart on 14th June where we can see how price reacted to the 200 weekly SMA.Comment: Someone mentioned to me that a recession is coming and that bitcoin has never gone through a recession and he is right. But since it has never gone through a recession, we don't know how it's going to react ... Could it go further down? Absolutely ... My actions are based on probabilities and potential upside vs downside, your risk profile and tolerance might be different so you'll have to evaluate for yourself. 😉